Dolphins' top scoring defense could put Raiders' playoff hopes to rest

Will Derek Carr be 100 percent to lead the Raiders on Saturday? Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

Dolphins (9-5) at Raiders (7-7)

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | NFL Network

Matchup rating: 44.2 | Spread: MIA -3.0 (47.5)

What to watch for: Who, exactly, will be starting at quarterback for the Raiders? Derek Carr left Las Vegas' overtime loss to the Chargers on Thursday night because of a groin strain. Marcus Mariota, in only his third game being active, nearly led the Raiders to victory and gave the offense a decidedly different look with his ability and willingness to extend plays with his legs. Carr was limited in practice Tuesday as he split reps with Mariota, giving the Dolphins two styles to worry about. He was a full participant on Wednesday, however. -- Paul Gutierrez

Bold prediction: Tua Tagovailoa will lead the Dolphins on a fourth-quarter comeback and a winning drive. He hasn't regularly put up big stat lines, but he has shown up biggest in key moments. Tagovailoa already has two fourth-quarter comebacks and winning drives, and with the Dolphins needing a win to stay in the playoff hunt, he will come up clutch once again, dicing the 29th-ranked scoring defense to lead Miami to victory. -- Cameron Wolfe

Stat to know: There is a big discrepancy on defense in this matchup. The Dolphins enter the game ranked first in scoring defense (18.4 points per game), and the Raiders rank 29th (30.1). The Dolphins haven't led the NFL in scoring defense since 1998, and the Raiders probably will finish 20th or worse for the 14th consecutive season.

Playoff/draft picture: The Dolphins enter the week with a 36% chance of making the playoffs, per FPI. Their chances would improve to 62% with a win Saturday, but they would drop to 16% with a loss to Las Vegas. The Raiders will be eliminated from the playoffs with a loss or a Ravens win.

Injuries: Dolphins | Raiders

What to know for fantasy: Josh Jacobs might have saved your team with a touchdown last week, but the efficiency is a major concern. After an early 20-yard run, he averaged just 2.3 yards per carry against the Chargers. Touchdown reliance isn't new, but it's tough to count on for a team that has lost four straight. See Week 16 rankings.

Betting nugget: Miami has covered nine of its past 10 games and is a league-best 11-3 ATS this season. Miami is 20-6 ATS since its Week 5 bye week last season. Read more.

Wolfe's pick: Dolphins 24, Raiders 20

Gutierrez's pick: Dolphins 27, Raiders 23

FPI prediction: LV, 56.7% (by an average of 2.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Dolphins' winning season should elicit joy for present and future ... Dolphins' DeVante Parker brings smiles to pediatric patients with 'Uncle Vante' gowns ... If Derek Carr is compromised, it could be time for Raiders to see what Marcus Mariota has ... QB controversy? Marcus Mariota just happy to contribute to Raiders