Week 12 NFL best bets: A number we like on each game

Each Friday during the NFL season, ESPN betting analysts Joe Fortenbaugh and Doug Kezirian, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, Fantasy's Mike Clay and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network will tell us what they like from Sunday's NFL slate.

Season ATS (against the spread) records:

Fortenbaugh 2-2 (23-21-1 on season)
Youmans 2-1 (22-16-1)
Kezirian 0-2 (11-17-1)
Bearman 2-0 (11-11-1)
Clay 3-0 (17-7)
Preston Johnson 1-2 (14-20-1)

Note: Caesars Sportsbook lines displayed as of Thursday; all times Eastern. Picks on lines available at time of posting.

1 p.m. games

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5, 47)

Bearman: With their pasting of the Buccaneers last week, the Saints proved the Week 10 loss to Atlanta was an aberration. After struggling to come up with any offense in the loss to the Falcons, Drew Brees and company had no issues in Tampa, jumping out to a 20-0 lead 25 minutes into the game. In all, the Saints have covered seven of the past eight games, and their past three wins were by double figures.