Through the first 10 group games, Euro 2020 has not looked much like Euro 2021 from a scoring perspective. The 2016 tournament averaged 1.9 goals per group game, compared to 2.4 per game so far this year.
Only six goals have been scored in 10 first halves so far, and 18 goals have come in the second half. And while the expected goals gap isn't that drastic this year (9.2 in the first half, 14.2 in the second half), it's worth noting that teams have opened up more in the second half early on in the tournament.
On with the picks...
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Neither team looked great in Saturday's openers. Russia lost 3-0 to Belgium and took only five shots. Finland upset Denmark 1-0 but took only one shot while allowing 22, and Denmark had to deal with the emotional strain of Christian Eriksen's cardiac arrest on the field.
Russia had 34 percent possession in the opener, and that should skyrocket against Finland, which let Denmark have 69 percent of the ball. Russia needs not only the three points, but ideally a multi-goal win after the three-goal loss in the opener. Also keep in mind that this game is in St. Petersburg, and Russia dominated lesser opposition at home during qualifying, including a 4-0 win over Scotland with an 18-4 shots advantage. Look for Artem Dzyuba and company to get back on track here.