Cardinals up, Patriots down: How NFL free agency has changed Super Bowl and other odds

Daily Wager: Previewing the NFC amid free agency (38:50)

Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson, Joe Fortenbaugh and Anita Marks all discuss the past, present and future free agent moves going on in NFC free agency. (38:50)

The NFL offseason has seen Tom Brady take his talents to Tampa Bay, DeAndre Hopkins traded to the Arizona Cardinals and Philip Rivers land in Indianapolis.

Drew Brees is back with the New Orleans Saints and has a new target in Emmanuel Sanders, but the Saints' QB insurance policy that was reliable backup Teddy Bridgewater is now with NFC South rival Carolina, as the Panthers move on from Cam Newton.

Along with Newton, former Buccaneers' quarterback Jameis Winston is also looking around for a new team. Todd Gurley is now a member of the Atlanta Falcons, and Melvin Gordon is with the Denver Broncos.

Some of the moves have impacted the odds to win the Super Bowl, while others have not. As free agency begins to wind down and the draft approaches, here is a glance at how the odds to win the Super Bowl have been adjusted by Caesars Sportsbook. ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson and Doug Kezirian offer their thoughts on the movement.


Arizona Cardinals

Super Bowl odds: Open: 60-1 | March 21: 50-1
NFC title odds: Open: 20-1 | March 21: 20-1

Johnson: "A" for effort in Arizona with the trade for Hopkins out of Houston. It's nice to see the organization is willing to give second-year head coach Kliff Kingsbury the pieces he and Kyler Murray need, but as far as consideration as a legitimate contender goes, that will have to wait a few more years.

Buffalo Bills

Super Bowl odds: Open: 30-1 | March 21: 28-1
AFC title odds: Open: 13-1 | March 21: 12-1

Johnson: The addition of Stefon Diggs is great. The subtraction of Brady from New England might be even better. It seems like everybody is expecting a breakout season from quarterback Josh Allen as well, but we'd be paying a premium buying into Buffalo at this point, and I'm not so sure the Bills-as-contenders talk is warranted anyway.

Indianapolis Colts

Super Bowl odds: Open: 35-1 | March 21: 30-1
AFC title odds: Open: 20-1 | March 21: 14-1

Johnson: In 2018, before Andrew Luck's sudden retirement, the Colts won 10 games and a road wild-card matchup over the Texans. More impressive was Frank Reich getting seven wins on the fly without Luck in 2019, with Jacoby Brissett and Brian Hoyer under center. Reich is one of my favorite coaches in the NFL, and acquiring a competent veteran quarterback in Rivers certainly warrants the early move on the Colts.

New York Giants

Super Bowl odds: Open: 100-1 | March 21: 60-1
NFC title odds: Open: 40-1 | March 21: 25-1

Johnson: The Giants made multiple moves that are positive, in theory (especially on the defensive side of the ball). But are they positive enough for us to take them seriously? I wouldn't waste your time.

Carolina Panthers

Super Bowl odds: Open: 100-1 | March 21: 50-1
NFC title odds: Open: 35-1 | March 21: 22-1

Kezirian: The Panthers have nearly the same odds as the Bucs to win the NFC. That doesn't exactly scream "value." Bridgewater is a solid addition, even though his statistics seem pedestrian. He actually has a 28-7 ATS mark as a starter, which is the best percentage of any quarterback in the Super Bowl era (minimum 15 starts). While he has a track record of outperforming his perception in head-to-head competition, I am not jumping to fire on any futures.

Chicago Bears

Super Bowl odds: Open: 30-1 | March 21: 25-1
NFC title odds: Open: 14-1 | March 21: 11-1

Kezirian: We are just two years removed from a Bears division title and home playoff game. However, they lost Vic Fangio as their defensive coordinator and the defensive domination understandably regressed. Can a competent offense return if Nick Foles beats out Mitchell Trubisky as the starting QB? I believe Foles is capable of being an upgrade, but I need more than 11-1 odds to get involved. However, 3-1 to win the NFC North does intrigue me.


New England Patriots

Super Bowl odds: Open: 14-1 | March 21: 20-1
AFC title odds: Open: 6-1 | March 21: 8-1

Johnson: I'll be the first one to buy a Patriots team -- a team still led by Bill Belichick -- that everybody else appears to be overlooking. It's generally hard to do that, however, when we're unsure who will be quarterbacking the team. The defense, the coaching and the system all line up, and I would be shocked if Belichick decided to punt the season away using Jarrett Stidham all year. Winston and Newton are still free agents, and Jordan Love could potentially fall to the Patriots in the draft at pick No. 23. A trade could also be in the works. I'm a Pats investor at the cheap prices.

Atlanta Falcons

Super Bowl odds: Open: 40-1 | March 21: 55-1
NFC title odds: Open: 16-1 | March 21: 25-1

Johnson: It's true that running backs in the NFL won't make a significant impact on their teams relative to the average replacement, but the main reason these futures prices on the Falcons after acquiring Gurley have shot up is because Brady arrived in their division in Tampa Bay. The drastic market reaction to Brady likely means there will be value in the NFC elsewhere, and for the price, a team led by a former MVP that just made two significant playoff runs before back-to-back "disappointing" 7-9 seasons will be on my radar.

Houston Texans

Super Bowl odds: Open: 30-1 | March 21: 50-1
AFC title odds: Open: 17-1 | March 21: 22-1

Kezirian: The Bill O'Brien jokes are constant and mostly justified. However, he has won the AFC South in four of the past five seasons, with 2017 as the outlier due to Deshaun Watson's season-ending knee injury. I understand the criticism for trading Hopkins for an insufficient return, but O'Brien still has plenty of talent. It starts with Watson, who should be an early MVP candidate, and the defense figures to be strong with a healthy J.J. Watt. Either way, the Texans should compete with the Tennessee Titans, but the other two divisional opponents do not scare me. Rivers in Indy is not a threat, and I am not too worried about Gardner Minshew mania in Jacksonville. Texans at 22-1 is intriguing, but I just do not think that will produce value because Houston will likely have to win three playoff games in the new format.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Super Bowl odds: Open: 15-1 | March 21: 28-1
AFC title odds: Open: 8-1 | March 23: 13-1

Kezirian: There is zero chance I would make a futures wager on the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger looks like he gained too much weight, and I question how effective he still is at 38 years old and without Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell. Mike Tomlin did a fantastic job to keep Pittsburgh in the playoff mix last year, but he made too much lemonade out of lemons for a healthy Big Ben to right the ship. The Baltimore Ravens are easily the class of the division, and I anticipate Cleveland being much more competent without Freddie Kitchens as its head coach. I cannot recommend any play for Pittsburgh with those low offerings, and I will look to play under its season total once it is posted.