South Africa fluff an important chance
Having put up a below-par total, albeit on a tough pitch, South Africa needed to grab all the chances that came their way if they entertained any thoughts of avoiding their third straight loss in this World Cup. And opportunity did come knocking early on in India's innings. Rohit Sharma, who played a pivotal role for India in their chase, gloved a ball from Kagiso Rabada in the second over only for the South Africa captain to make a hash of the chance.
Given the tricky batting conditions and the intensity that the South Africa's pace bowlers maintained throughout the innings, an early wobble in India's innings could have made the chase much trickier than it already was. ESPNCricinfo's Luck Index estimates that Rohit Sharma's reprieve cost South Africa 23 runs. This is arrived at by simulating India's innings assuming Rohit was dismissed on that ball and reallocating the balls he played to the batsmen left to follow. Luck Index reckons that the other India batsman would've scored 23 fewer runs from the 141 balls Rohit faced after getting dropped.
India could've still scored the additional 23 runs given that South Africa's main seamers had finished their quota and Tabraiz Shamsi had one over left to bowl, but 23 off 15 would have made the contest a lot closer than it already was.
Bumrah's bowling effort marginally better than Chahal's
It was clear that Rohit played the decisive role for India in this match. ESPNcricinfo's Smart Stats backs this by putting a number to it: according to Smart Stats, Rohit made 24.61% contribution to India's win in this match - the highest by India player in the game. Interestingly though Jasprit Bumrah pips Yuzvendra Chahal as the second-biggest contributor to India's cause in this match.
Conventional cricket scorecard wisdom would tell us that Chahal's 4 for 51 are considered superior bowling figures than Bumrah's 2 for 35. But Smart Stats gives credit to a bowler for dismissing batsmen of higher quality depending on the match situation in which they were dismissed. For example, a bowler would get higher impact points for dismissing Quinton de Kock early in his innings than dismissing Andile Phehlukwayo. Similary, a bowler's economy will earn him higher (or lower) impact points based on the pressure under which he bowled, and the overs he bowled. A bowler returning economical figures in the Powerplay when the fielding restrictions are in place will get a higher impact value than another bowler returning similar figures in the middle overs when the opposition is already under strife.
Bumrah took the wickets of Hashim Amla and Quinton de Kock early in the Powerplay. Smart Stats values these two wickets at 2.94. Chahal's four wickets included the important wicket of du Plessis and his wickets are valued at 4.97. However, what tilts the scales in Bumrah's favour are the five overs he bowled upfront in the Powerplay. Bumrah gave away just 13 runs from those overs bowling to South Africa's top-order batsmen. Overall, Bumrah went for just 35 runs in the match from his ten overs, two of which were, again, bowled under pressure at death, albeit to lower-order batsmen. Chahal, on the other hand, gave away 51 runs in a match that saw runs being scored at 4.7 an over.
Bumrah's conventional economy of 3.5 translates to a Smart Economy of 2.45 which adds to the impact points that his wickets have earned him. While Chahal's Smart Economy of 5.65 brings down the overall impact of his four wickets. These impact points when converted to individual contributions expressed as percentages, put Bumrah's 22.34% slightly ahead of Chahal's 22.03%.