Toluca, Santos are Liguilla locks but work left to do for Pachuca, Tijuana

Only two matchdays remain in the 2018 Clausura regular season.

The race continues for a position in the top eight and a playoff spot, and while a few teams have already been eliminated or clinched a spot in the next round, several more still have plenty to play for.

With some help from FiveThirtyEight's playoff probabilities, let's take a look at where all 18 Liga MX teams currently stand in four different Liguilla categories: Playoffs guaranteed, playoffs likely, playoffs unlikely and no playoff chances.

Playoffs guaranteed


League position: 1st

Point tally: 33

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 100%

At worst, Los Diablos Rojos will finish in second place. Toluca can coast through the final weeks of the regular season with the comforting knowledge that a #1 or #2 playoff seed is guaranteed.

Santos Laguna

League position: 2nd

Point tally: 29

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 100%

An invitation to the playoffs has already been sent, but unlike Toluca, Los Guerreros will have to be careful that they don't drop out of the top two spots in the league table at the last minute.

Playoffs likely

Club America

League position: 3rd

Point tally: 26

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: >99%

We might as well count America in. Even if the team loses its last two matches, there is still a very strong chance that the Mexico City-based club will finish in the top eight.


League position: 4th

Point tally: 26

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: >99%

Similar to America, Tigres could stumble to two losses and manage to have an expected spot in the playoffs. A long list of misfortunes would need to occur in order to push Ricardo Ferretti's men out of the Liguilla places.


League position: 5th

Point tally: 25

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: >99%

With a home game set against the worst team in the league (Lobos BUAP) this weekend, it's a safe bet to assume that Monterrey will go through to the playoffs. In the unlikely event that Los Rayados finish without a single point in their last two fixtures, a place in the top eight is still highly probable.


League position: 6th

Point tally: 23

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 79%

As long as Morelia at least gets a point against Cruz Azul this weekend, a path to the Liguilla will still be within reach. If not, things might get surprisingly tricky heading into Week 17.

Club Tijuana

League position: 7th

Point tally: 21

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 67%

For most of the season, Xolos have flirted with tenuous playoff positions near 7th and 8th. A win this weekend against Leon would do plenty to help their chances.


League position: 8th

Point tally: 21

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 71%

Despite their inconsistencies in the Clausura, Los Tuzos will have a fairly easy schedule with matches left against 15th-placed Queretaro and 17th-placed Atlas.

Playoffs unlikely


League position: 9th

Point tally: 20

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 45%

Is there much hope for Necaxa? Although their defense has been superb of late, Los Rayos will need to step up their attack in the final two weeks against daunting sides Tigres and Morelia.


League position: 10th

Point tally: 20

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 27%

If a couple of teams above them slip up this weekend, Pumas will have a fantastic opportunity to leapfrog them in the league table. That said, Pumas will also have to get an away win this Sunday against a Santos team that has yet to lose at home.


League position: 11th

Point tally: 18

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 2%

There's no doubt that the relegation candidates will be desperate for points, but even if they clinch a couple of wins, Los Tiburones Rojos might still miss out on the top eight.


League position: 12th

Point tally: 18

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 6%

A slightly easier schedule could help Leon surpass Veracruz, but a -11 goal differential won't help to win any tiebreakers for regular season positioning. Fans of Los Panzas Verdes will need to pray for one-sided victories and a handful of other results working in their favor.


League position: 13th

Point tally: 17

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 2%

In the last several weeks, few teams have looked more miserable than the Puebla side that recently lumbered to its fifth loss in a row. A last-minute playoff push will probably be too little too late.

Cruz Azul

League position: 14th

Point tally: 16

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 2%

There's a miniscule amount of playoff hope that will surely vanish this weekend. With a difficult home game against Morelia on Saturday, Cruz Azul's race to the Liguilla is expected to end sooner rather than later.


League position: 15th

Point tally: 16

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: <1%

There's no lack of unpredictability in the Liga MX, but Queretaro finding a way into the top eight would easily be one of the most shocking moments of the year. All signs point to Los Gallos Blancos being knocked out of the playoff race by this weekend.


League position: 16th

Point tally: 15

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: <1%

So you're telling me there's a chance? Yes, but the stars will need to align for the CONCACAF Champions League finalists who are staring at a six-point gap between them and 8th place, not to mention a less than ideal -7 goal differential.

No playoff chances


League position: 17th

Point tally: 14

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 0%

All that's left to fight for is crosstown bragging rights when they face Chivas this Friday night.

Lobos BUAP

League position: 18th

Point tally: 9

FiveThirtyEight's playoff probability: 0%

The playoffs have been irrelevant to Lobos BUAP for quite some time, what truly matters to the team in the final weeks is avoiding relegation.