Prime-time Parlay: FPI predictions for the divisional round

Philip Rivers and Tom Brady meet again, this time with a trip to the AFC Championship on the line. Matthew J. Lee/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

It's the final week of the Prime-time Parlay season, and this is as close as we'll get to a layup. Three teams (Colts, Chargers, Eagles) are faced with the task of winning a second straight road playoff game, and all face opponents who are rested and healthy coming off of the bye week. Will that translate to predictable results? Maybe! But this league has a long-established track record of playing tricks on you.

Once again, Prime-time Parlay is all about the best games -- in this case, all four playoff games. You make straight-up picks, but you have to hit all four. Then we calculate how much you would earn for the parlay, using Westgate's money lines.

Via ESPN's Football Power Index, Prime-time Parlay tells you the analytics-based predictions for the meetings of greatest national import, offering the smart picks for the games you'll be watching. (All NFL point spreads and money lines are available here.)

Total payout for divisional round weekend Prime-time Parlay (selecting all FPI-projected winners in four games): $232.70 on $100 wager

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (4:35 p.m. ET Saturday, NBC)

Money line: Chiefs -250
FPI projection: Chiefs win by 8.8 points

Both teams' offenses have been good ... but on very different scales. Though the Colts have a healthy Andrew Luck and a thriving offensive line, FPI sees KC's offense as more than seven points per game more valuable than Indy's. And that Colts defense that has been getting praise? It ranks 11th in efficiency, which is good but hardly exceptional. Meanwhile, FPI is in love with Patrick Mahomes (with good reason). The Chiefs win big. -- Seth Walder

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (8:15 p.m. ET Saturday, Fox)

Money line: Rams -310
FPI projection: Rams win by 10.5 points

FPI looks at the whole picture rather than just the last few games, so it isn't bothered by the Rams' slow finish to the season -- no recency bias here. It thinks this is the third-best team in the league hosting the 14th-best team, so it's unsurprising that it positions the Rams as heavy favorites. -- Walder

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (1:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Money line: Patriots -220
FPI projection: Patriots win by 5.1 points

FPI actually thinks the Chargers are the slightly better team. But because this game is on the road -- and all the way across the country -- and because the Patriots have a rest advantage, it gives New England a solid shot to win. -- Walder

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (4:40 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox)

Money line: Saints -425
FPI projection: Saints win by 11.5 points

In FPI's view, this is the best team in the playoffs facing the worst team in the playoffs. It should be a blowout. The Eagles will need some of that unquantifiable NIck Foles magic if they're going to pull off another upset. The Saints' offense is almost nine points per game better than the Eagles' offense, according to FPI. -- Walder

Final parlay: Chiefs, Rams, Patriots, Saints

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index.